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Curriculum Vitae of Jean-Pierre Laffargue

Personal information

Name:             Jean-Pierre Laffargue
Date of birth: February 17, 1944 (Bordeaux, France)
Nationality:   French citizen

Telephone:     (33)1 43 13 6339 (work)
Fax:                (33)1 43 13 6232
E-mail:  and
Address:          Maison des sciences économiques

                        106-112 boulevard de l'Hôpital

                        75647 Paris Cedex 13, France


Languages:    French and English

Education and distinctions

  • Ingénieur civil de l'aéronautique, 1966.
  • PhD. in statistics, Faculté de sciences of Paris, 1969.
  • Ph.D. in economics, University of Paris 1 (Panthéon-Sorbonne), 1972.
  • Agrégation in economics, 1979.
  • Chevalier de la Légion d'Honneur, 2006.

Employment history

  • 1983-now: Professor of economics at the University of Paris 1.
  • 1979-1983: Professor of economics at the University of Lille 2.
  • 1969-2012: Economist at CEPREMAP.
  • 1998-2002: Scientific adviser at CEPII.
  • 2005-2006: Research fellow at PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques (Joint research unit CNRS-EHESS-ENPC-ENS)
  • Visiting professor at the universities of Algiers, Saint Joseph of Beirut,  Tunis,  Sousse,  Recife, Merida (Venezuela), Brasilia, UFPE and UFPB (Nordeste of Brazil), Douala (Cameroon), Libreville (Gabon), Deakin (Australia), to the l'ENSEA of Abidjan, to the ENSSEA (Algiers), City University of Hong Kong, Fudan University, etc.

Editing and refereeing

Referee reports written for China Economic Review, Economic Modelling, Emerging Markets, Finance and Trade, Indonesian Capital Market Review, Journal of Dynamic Economics and Control, Journal of International Trade and Economics, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Pacific Economic Review, Recherches Economiques de Louvain, Research in Economics, Resource and Energy Economics, Review of Development Economics, Review of International Economics, Revue Economique, Revue d’Economie Politique, Revue Française d’Economie, World Economics, The Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

Scientific responsibilities

  • 2000-2004: Member of the Comité National de la Recherche Scientifique.
  • 2005-2009: Scientific expert at the Haut Conseil franco-algérien universitaire et de recherche.
  • 2000-2004: Co-ordinator of the French part of a Capes-Cofecub agreement between Paris 1 and three universities of the Nordeste of Brazil.
  • 1999-2005: Head of the DEA of International Economics.
  • 1993-1994: Member of the Jury of the Concours national d'agrégation de l'enseignement supérieur pour le recrutement des professeurs d'université en sciences économiques.
  • 1987-1992: Member of the Conseil National des Universités. 
  • Now: Fellow of the Pan-African Research Council.


  • "An Introduction to Applied Econometrics", DEA of International Economics, University of Paris 1 (Panthéon-Sorbonne). The lecture notes and the examination subjects can be downloaded from the page: Teaching Econometrics.
  • "Mondialisation et intégration régionale", Licence of Economics at the University of Paris 1 (Panthéon-Sorbonne).  The syllabus and the ten chapters can be downloaded from the page: Teaching Globalization.
  • "Microéconomie financière", 2nd year of the Magistère of Economics, University of Paris 1(Panthéon-Sorbonne). 
  • "Economie de l’incertain" 3rd year of the Magistère of Finance, University of Paris 1 (Panthéon-Sorbonne). The syllabus, the six chapters, the exercises, and the examination subjects can be downloaded from the page: Teaching Uncertainty Economics.
  • "Macroéconomie du développement", M2P Expertise, University of Paris 1 (Panthéon-Sorbonne). The seven chapters and the examination subjects can be downloaded from the page: Teaching Development Macroeconomics. 
  • “Politique du développement”, 1st year of Master of Economics, University of Paris 1 (Panthéon-Sorbonne). The three chapters can be downloaded from the page: Teaching Development Policy. 
  • "Introduction générale à l'économie", 1st year of licence of Economics, University of Paris 1 (Panthéon-Sorbonne).  The syllabus, the five chapters, the exercises, and the examination subjects can be downloaded from the page: Teaching IGE.
  • "Computational Economics under MATLAB", taught at the graduate level at City University (Hong Kong). The seven chapters and the computer programs can be downloaded from the page: Teaching MATLAB.
  • "Evaluation of Macroeconomic Policies in Industrialized and Emerging Economies", M2R Public Policy and Development (PPD), EHESS and Paris School of Economics. The syllabus and the thirteen chapters can be downloaded from the page: Teaching Policy Evaluation. 
  • "Open Economy Macroeconomics", Master Globalization and Development Economics, PUC de Sao Paulo, February-March 2014. The syllabus and the PPT of the seven chapters can be downloaded from the page: Teaching Open Economy.


  • " Retour sur le Plan", with Pierre Morin, Revue Francaise d’Economie, 37, 185-233, 2023.
  • "Hommage à Pierre Malgrange", with Pierre Morin, Revue Francaise d’Economie, 35, 3-36, 2021.
  • "Is Piracy Sustainable?"with Kenneth S. Chan, Canadian Journal of Economics, 53(1), 321-340, 2020. A preliminary version was presented at the 2017 Henan Symposium of Development and Institutional Economics, School of Economics, Henan University, 18-19 July 2017.
  • "Growth and International Trade: A Heckscher-Ohlin Approach" in Surveys of International Trade, Yin-Wong Cheung and Bharat R. Hazari eds., World Scientific, Singapore, 621-658, 2019. A preliminary version was presented at the Ninth IEFS China Annual Conference, UIBE, Beijing, 26-28 July 2017.   
  • "Plunder and Tribute in a Malthusian World", with Kenneth S. Chan. Mathematical Social Sciences, 84, 138-150, 2016. Preliminary versions were presented at the 2015 Henan Symposium on Development and Institutional Economics, 20-21 June 2015, and the 13th Viennese Workshop on Optimal Control and Dynamic Games, 13-16 May 2015.
  • "Insurance of Household Risks and the Rebalancing of the Chinese Economy: Health Insurance, Health Expenses, and Household Savings", with Diana Cheung and Ysaline Padieu. Pacific Economic Review, 21(3), 381-412, 2016. A preliminary version was presented at the 2014 China Society of World Economics Conference, in Hangzhou. 
  • "Environmental Migration and Capital Mobility", with Chi-Chur Chao, Mong Shan Ee, and Eden S.H. Yu, International Review of Economics and Finance, 42, 430-441, 2016. 
  • "A Dynamic Model of Taxation, Corruption, and Public Investment in the Dynastic Cycle: The Case of Imperial China", with Kenneth S. Chan, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 20(8), 2123-2147, 2016. 
  • "Migration and the Environment: Policy Reform in a Polluted Open Economy", with Chi-Chur Chao, Xiangbo Liu, Pasquale M. Sgro and YuChao Xiao, The World Economy, 38(1), 48-62, 2015. 
  • "Tariff and Consumption Tax Reforms in a Developing Tourism Economy", with Hamid Beladi and Chi-Chur Chao, The Journal of  International & Trade Economic Development, 24(6), 822-834, 2015. 
  • "The Chinese Savings Puzzles", with Eden S.H. Yu, in Routledge Handbook of the Chinese Economy, Gregory C. Chow and Dwight Perkins eds., Routledge, London and New York, 2015, 121-137.  
  • "Tourism as an Automatic Stabilizer", Louvain Economic Review, 80(3), 5-20, 2014. A preliminary version was presented at the Shanghai Forum, 2012. 
  • "The Growth and Decline of the Modern Sector and the Merchant Class in Imperial China", with Kenneth S. Chan, Review of Development Economics, 18(1), 13-28, 2014.
  • "Congestion and Optimal Immigration Policy", with Chi-Chur Chao and Bharat R. Hazari, Review of Development Economics, 17(1), 88-104, 2013.
  • "La modélisation macroéconomique. Continuités, tensions", with Pierre Malgrange and Pierre Morin, Economie et Statistique, no. 451-453, 11-20, 2012.
  • "La nouvelle synthèse néo-classique : une introduction", with Pierre Malgrange and Pierre Morin, Economie et Statistique, no. 451-453, 31-44, 2012.
  • "Une comparaison des modèles macro-économétriques et DSGE dans l’évaluation des politiques économiques. Une comparaison basée sur les modèles Mésange et Egée", Economie et Statistique, no. 451-453, 45-68, 2012.
  • "Tariff and Environmental Policies with Product Standards", with Chi-Chur Chao and Pasquale Sgro, Canadian Journal of Economics, 45(3), 978-995, 2012.
  • "Environmental Control, Wage Inequality, and National Welfare in a Tourism Economy", with Chi-Chur Chao and Pasquale Sgro, International Review of Economic and Finance, 22, 201-207, 2012.
  • "Foreign Threats, Technological Progress and the Rise and Decline of Imperial China", with Kenneth S. Chan, Pacific Economic Review, 17(2), 280-303, 2012.
  • "Epidemics and Fertility in a Malthusian Economy", Mathematical Population Studies, 19(1), 4-26, 2012.
  • "Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Models and Tourism Economics", Tourism, Trade and Welfare, Bharat R. Hazari, and A. Reza Hoshmand, eds., Nova Science Publisher, Inc., New York 2011, 117-138. 
  • "The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis. A Revaluation", with Chi-Chur Chao and Eden S.H. Yu, China Economic Review, 22(1), 108-120, 2011.
  •  "Foreign Aid, Wage Inequality, and Welfare for a Small Open Economy with Tourism", with Chi-Chur Chao and Pasquale Sgro, Review of International Economics, 18(3), 454-464, 2010.
  • "On the Distributional Consequences of Epidemics", with Raouf Boucekkine, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 34(2), 231-245, 2010. Previous versions were: “A Theory of Dynamics and Inequalities under Epidemics”, CORE Discussion Paper 2007/37, Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgique, and "The Economic Dynamics of Epidemics", 12th International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance, Society for Computational Economics, Cyprus, June 22-24 2006. This paper can be downloaded from the page: Publication.
  • "Intergenerational Transfers and the Stability of Public Debt with Short-Lived Governments", Mathematical Population Studies, 16(1),  79-104, 2009.
  • "Tourism and the Environment", with Hamid Beladi, Chi-Chur Chao, Bharat R. Hazari, Resource and Energy Economics, 31, 39-49, 2009.
  • "A Dynamic Model of Tourism, Employment, and Welfare: The Case of Hong Kong ", with Chi-Chur Chao, Bharat R. Hazari and Eden S. H. Yu, Pacific Economic Review 14(2), 232-245, 2009.
  • "Is Free Trade Optimal for a Small Open Economy with Tourism?", with Chi-Chur Chao, Bharat R. Hazari, and Eden S. H. Yu, International Trade and Economic Dynamics. Essays in Memory of Koji Shimomura, Takashi Kamihigashi and Laixun Zhao eds., Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, 2009, 49-62.
  •  "Environmental Regulations for a Small Open Economy with Tourism", with Chi-Chur Chao, Bharat R. Hazari and Eden S. H. Yu, in Globalization and Emerging Issues in Trade Theory and Policy, Binh Tran-Nam, Ngo Van Long and Makoto Tawada, eds., Emerald, 2008, 269-284.
  • "Public Inputs, Urban Development, and Welfare in a Developing Economy", with Chi-Chur Chao and Eden S. H. Yu, Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting and Economics 13(2), 141-151, 2006 and Contemporary and Emerging Issues in Trade Theory and Policy, Sugata Marjit, and Eden Yu eds. Emerald, 2008, 297-314.
  • "La nouvelle modélisation macroéconomique appliquée à l'analyse de la conjoncture et à l'évaluation des politiques : les modèles dynamiques stochastiques  d'équilibre général (DSGE)", with Anne Epaulard and Pierre Malgrange, Economie et Prévision no.183-184, 1-13, 2008.
  • La Réforme des Systèmes de Retraite : qui Paiera ? Collection du CEPREMAP, N° 8, Paris, Editions Rue d'Ulm/Presses de l'Ecole Normale Supérieure, 2007, and 27 Questions d'Economie Contemporaine, Philippe Askenazy and Daniel Cohen éds., Albin Michel, Paris, 2008, 311-341. This paper can be downloaded from the Page: Publications.
  •  "A Dynamic Analysis of Tied Aid", with Chi-Chur Chao, Bharat R. Hazari and Eden S. H. Yu,  Theory and Practice of Foreign Aid, Sajal Lahiri ed., Elsevier, Amsterdam, 2007, 173-183. This paper can be downloaded from the Page: Publications. 
  • "Tourism, Dutch Disease and Welfare in an Open Dynamic Economy", with  Chi-Chur Chao, Bharat R. Hazari, Pasquale M. Sgro, and Eden S. H. Yu, The Japanese Economic Review 57(4), 501-515, 2007. This paper can be downloaded from the Page: Publications.
  • "Les écarts d’inflation et les prix dans la zone euro", Revue des Sciences Commerciales et de Gestion, 4, 5-48, 2005. A more complete version, and an English version can be dowloaded from the Page: Publications.
  • "A Sufficient Condition for the Existence and the Uniqueness of a Solution in Macroeconomic Models with Perfect Foresight", Journal of Dynamic Economics and Control, 28, 1955-1975, 2004.
  • "A Computational General Equilibrium Model with Vintage Capital", with Loïc Cadiou and Stéphane Dées, Journal of Dynamic Economics and Control 27, 1961-1991, 2003.
  • "Mondialisation et inégalité entre nations : une perspective historique", Revue des Sciences Commerciales et de Gestion, no. 2, 7-13, 2003.
  • "Macro-economic Interdependence Between Nations in a World Without Structural Asymmetries", with Pierre-Olivier Beffy, Brazilian Journal of Business Economics, vol.2, no. 3, 2002, 45-88. The paper is available with the software and programs to simulate its model (called Mosquito). You will have to download from the Page Publications the pdf file Mosquito Readme and the four zip files: Mosquito Dynare, Mosquito Paper, Mosquito Programs, and Mosquito Results.     
  • "Marmotte. Un modèle multinational de 17 pays industrialisés", with Stéphane Dées, Arjan Kadareja, and Bronka Rzepkowki, Economie Internationale, no. 86, 143-167, 2001. A research summary was published in The CEPII Newsletter, no 16, Winter 2001/2002. The five papers on Marmotte can be downloaded from the page: Publications.
  • "Comment" on "Technological Bias and Employment Inequality: A Macroeconomic Perspective" by Henri R. Sneessens, in Productivity, Inequality and the Digital Economy, Nathalie Greenan, Yannick L'Horty and Jacques Mairesses eds. The MIT Press, 2002.
  • "Structure et comportement macro-économiques : comparaisons économiques entre nations", with Pierre Malgrange and Alain Quinet, Economie et Prévision, no. 147, 37-50, 2001.This paper can be downloaded from the Page: Publications.
  • "Comparaison de la formation des salaires dans un panel de pays industrialisés", with Stéphanie Guichard, Economie et Prévision, no. 147, 37-50, 2001This paper can be downloaded from the Page: Publications.  A version in English "The wage curve: The lessons of an estimation over a panel of countries" was published as a working paper of CEPII, no. 2000-21. It can be downloaded from the same page under the title Marmotte1.
  • "Testing the Lucas Critique: Super Exogeneity and Encompassing", in Growth, Redistribution and Structural Change, Joanilio Rodolpho Teixeira and Francisco Galrao Carneiro eds, Universidad Catolica de Brasilia, 141-162, 2001.
  • "Un nouveau mode de calcul du taux de remplacement : une mesure des tensions sur le marché du travail francais", with Florence Thibaut, Economie et Statistique, no. 331, 67-86, 2000This paper can be downloaded from the Page: Publications.
  • "Effets et financement d’une réduction des charges sociales sur les bas salaires", Revue Economique 51(3), 489-498, 2000. This paper can be downloaded from the Page: Publications. 
  • "Inégalités, biais de progrès technique et imperfections de marché en France, de 1974 à 1993", with Anne Saint-Martin, Economie et Prévision, no. 138-139, 89-110, 1999. This paper can be downloaded from the Page: Publications. 
  • "Inegalités, progrès technique et internationalisation", Revue Economique 48, 1029-1039, 1997.
  • "Chômage des non-qualifiés et progrès technique: le modèle Charlotte", Revue Economique 48, 1311-1335, 1997. Also published as: “Unemployment of Unskilled Labor, Technical Progress and International Trade – The Charlotte Model”, in Money, Growth, Distribution, and Structural Change: Contemporaneous Analysis, Joanilio Rodolpho Teixeira ed, University of Brasilia, 1997, 114-144.
  • "Emploi d'équilibre et formation des salaires: une étude sectorielle", with Yannick L'Horty, Economie et Prevision 127, 117-136, 1997. 
  • "Fiscalité, charges sociales, qualifications et emploi. Etude à l’aide du modèle d’équilibre général calculable de l’économie française Julien", Economie et Prevision 125, 87-105, 1996.
  • "Foreword to Recent Developments in the Macroeconomics of Imperfect Competition", with Pierre Malgrange, Annales d’Economie et de Statistique 37/38, 15-27, 1995.
  • "A Dynamic Model of the French Economy, with Rational Expectations, Monopolistic Competition and Labour Market Bargainig", Annales d’Economie et de Statistique 37/38, 465-530, 1995.
  • "Dynamique du taux de change à l’intérieur du SME", with Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi, Annales d’Economie et Statistique 35, 47-85, 1994.
  • "Une maquette trimestrielle de l’économie française avec anticipations rationnelles et concurrence monopolistique", with Pierre Malgrange and Thierry Pujol, L’Actualite Economique 68, 225-261, 1992.
  • "Déséquilibre, investissement et désagrégation sectorielle : une application au cas français", with Patrick Artus and Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi, Annales d’Economie et Statistique 23, 137-158, 1991.
  • "Un modèle économétrique du déséquilibre de l’économie française, avec deux secteurs, des prix et un investissement endogènes", with Patrick Artus and Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi, Economie et Prévision 94/95, 115-127, 1990. 
  • "Résolution d’un modèle macroéconomique avec anticipations rationnelles" Annales d’Economie et de Statistique 17, 97-119, 1990. 
  • "Taux de salaire, investissement et emploi dans une économie semi-ouverte", Mélanges économiques. Essais en l’honneur d’Edmond Malinvaud, Economica, Paris, 651-672, 1988.
  • "Une méthode d’analyse interne des modèles macro-économétriques multinationaux : présentation et application au modèle de R.C. Fair", Economie et Prevision 73, 43-61, 1986.
  • "Les modèles macrodynamiques de politique économique : dialogue entre le théoricien et l’économètre", Annales de l’INSEE 40, 33-65, 1980.
  • Modèles non-linéaires d’analyse de la variance", Annales de l’INSEE 19, 57-105, 1975.
  • "Monnaie et croissance", Bulletin de Mathématiques Economiques (Universités de Paris I et Paris VI) 3, 1970.
  • "Recherche sur une fonction de préférence étatique", with Alain Morineau and Marc Trévoux, Bulletin du CEPREMAP 3, 41-113, 1969.

Discussion papers, working papers, and various works

  • "The Implementation of Local Reform in an Authoritarian State", with Kenneth S. Chan, October 2020.
  • "The FR-BDF Model and an Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission in France", with Matthieu Lemoine, Harri Turunen, Mohammed Chahad, Antoine Lepetit, Anastasia Zhutova, Pierre Aldama and Pierrick Clerc, Working Paper Series no. 736, Banque de France, October 2019.
  • "LRFR/BDF.A Long Run Neo-Classical Version of the FR/BDF Model”, with Matthieu Lemoine, 31 August 2018. Banque de France.
  • "A Condensed Version of the FR/BDF model". Main note with Pierrick Clerc and Matthieu Lemoine, 1 August 2016; Introduction of an imported input, 21 September 2016; Anticipations and adjustments under perfect foresight, 30 September 2016; The chain-weighted variables model with Mohammed Chahad, 30 September 2016. Banque de France.
  • "Helping Poor and Beautiful Regions: How Tourism Affects the Theory of Transfers", presented at The 5th Annual Joint Workshop on Socio-Economics, of the Universities of Fudan, Paris 1, the FERDI and SUFE, After the Crisis: New Economic and Social Challenges in a New World, Shanghai, 26 May 2013.
  • "Is a Pay-as-you-Go Pension System Politically Stable ?", Economic Globalization and the Choice of Asia, 2010 Shanghai Forum, Fudan University, Shanghai, May 29-30.
  • Book Review of Classical Trade Protectionism. 1815-1914, edited by Jean-Pierre Dormois and Pedro Lains, Routledge, 2006, Journal of International Trade and Economic Development 16 (3), 443-446, 2007. This paper can be downloaded from the page: Publication. 
  • Book Review of Understanding Globalisation, Employment, and Poverty Reduction, edited by Eddy Lee and Marco Vivarelli, Palgrave Macmillan, 2004, Journal of International Trade and Economic Development 15 (4), 540-541, 2006. This paper can be downloaded from the page: Publication. 
  • "Tourism, Jobs, Capital Accumulation and the Economy: A Dynamic Analysis", with Chi-Chur Chao, Bharat R. Hazari, Pasquale M. Sgro and Eden S. H. Yu, Nota di Lavoro della Fondazione ENI Enrico Mattei, 136.2005, November 2005. This paper can be downloaded from the page: Publication.
  • "The US Economy in the 90s and its Repercussions on Canada, Eurozone and Japan”, with Stéphane Capet and Paolo Zangheri, communication to a workshop organized by the Bank of Canada: "Global Models and the Transmissions of Shocks"  Ottawa 22, May 2003. The five files on Marmotte can be downloaded from the page: Publications.
  • "Débat sur les allégements des cotisations sociales sur les bas salaires", with Thomas Coutrot, Bruno Crépon, Michel Dolle, Jean-Paul Fitoussi, Henri Sterdyniak, Alain Gubian, Michel Husson, Guy Laroque, Frédéric Lerais, Yannick L’Horty and Michel Martinez, with Edmond Malinvaud acting as moderator, Revue de l’OFCE. Observations et Diagnostics Economiques, no. 85, 210-234, 2003. The file can be downloaded from the page: Publications.
  • "Koala: A Computable Open Economy Model with Putty Clay Technology", mimeographed CEPREMAP. The model is available with the software and programs to simulate it. To get it you must download two zip files: Koala and Koala Dynare, from the page: Publications.
  • "What Fiscal Policy for Europe?", with Stéphane Capet, Frédéric Karamé, Bronka Rzepkowski, and Paolo Zanghieri, communication to the International Workshop on Impact of Alternative Policy Rules, CEPII-ENEPRI, 1-2 July 2002, Royaumont (France). The five files on Marmotte can be downloaded from the page: Publications.
  • "Entries: “Bayésienne (Théorie)”, “Bruit”, “Econométrie”, “Erreur”, “Espérance mathématique” in Dictionnaire des Sciences Economiques, Claude Jessua, Christian Labrousse et Daniel Vitry éds., Presses universitaires de France, 2001.
  • "Marmotte. A Multinational Model by CEPII/CEPREMAP", with Loïc Cadiou, Stéphane Dées, Stéphanie Guichard, Arjan Kadareja and Bronka Rzepkowski, working paper of CEPII, no. 2001-15. The five files on Marmotte can be downloaded from the page: Publications.
  • "An Overview of Marmotte", with Stéphane Dées, Arjan Kadareja, and Bronka Rzepkowski, communication to the International Workshop on Simulation Properties of Macroeconometric Models, CEPII-ENEPRI, 4-6 July 2001, Royaumont (France). The five files on Marmotte can be downloaded from the page: Publications.
  • "A Note on the Estimation of an Equation over a Panel of Countries", mimeographed CEPREMAP, December 2000. This paper can be downloaded from the page: Publications. 
  • "Financement d'une baisse des cotisations sociales employeurs sur le travail peu qualifié. Une étude à l'aide du modèle d’équilibre général calculable Julien 4",  Série couverture orange, no. 9913, CEPREMAP, 1999.
  • "Un modèle d'équilibre général calculable de la France : Julien 4", with Anne Saint-Martin, Série couvertures orange, no. 9816, CEPREMAP, 1998.
  • "Politiques budgétaires sous différents régimes de change", Séminaire sur les Finances Publiques, organisé par le Ministère des Finances de la République Algérienne Démocratique et Populaire et le Fonds Monétaire Arabe, 431-451, 10 au 20 mars 1986.
  • "Monnaie et croissance. L’état actuel de la question", note de travail du CEPREMAP, 5 août 1971.